{"id":3288,"date":"2021-10-06T04:00:22","date_gmt":"2021-10-06T08:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/?p=3288"},"modified":"2022-12-06T14:05:14","modified_gmt":"2022-12-06T19:05:14","slug":"vieillissement-demographique-solutions-pour-un-quebec-mal-prepare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/vieillissement-demographique-solutions-pour-un-quebec-mal-prepare\/","title":{"rendered":"An Aging Population : Solutions for a Poorly Prepared Quebec"},"content":{"rendered":"

Just as it is managing to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, Quebec is confronted with its failure to prepare for the impact of an aging population. As a result, the province is facing a labour shortage that may undermine its economic recovery. \u201cEssentially, Quebec\u2019s problem is simple,\u201d says Robert Gagn\u00e9, Director of the Centre for Productivity and Prosperity \u2013 Walter J. Somers Foundation (CPP) and co-author of the study<\/a>. \u201cIts employment rate is lower than that of Ontario and the Canadian average because fewer Quebeckers 60 and over are on the labour market. To give a general idea of the extent of the problem, merely bringing the employment rate for this portion of the population up to the level in Ontario would theoretically make it possible to fill half the vacant positions in the province.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a report titled Vieillissement d\u00e9mographique\u00a0: solutions pour un Qu\u00e9bec mal pr\u00e9par\u00e9<\/em><\/a>, the authors note that the relatively low employment rate among people 60 and over in Quebec is basically attributable to the low native-born labour market participation \u2013\u00a0meaning people born in Quebec. \u201cOur analysis shows that the employment rate for the Canadian-born population age 60 and over in Quebec is lower than that of other categories of workers in the same age group, whether they were born in other provinces or immigrants living in Quebec or elsewhere in Canada,\u201d he explains. \u201cThis led us to conclude that the over-representation of native-born Quebeckers in the public service and unionized jobs in Quebec would explain this situation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Since they have greater job security and considerable retirement benefits, these workers can presumably take the opportunity to withdraw earlier from the job market, which is clearly to their advantage. Moreover, the lack of flexibility in collective agreements may encourage workers to retire even though they might have remained active if they could have benefited from accommodations reflecting their status as older workers.<\/p>\n

An analysis of a sample representing 10% of collective agreements in effect in Quebec shows that barely 12.7% of them contain clauses intended to keep older workers on the job, i.e. additional vacation, lighter duties, flexible hours, etc. \u201cIn short, public and private unionized workplaces simply don\u2019t seem to have adapted to the reality of full employment,\u201d says Jonathan Deslauriers, CPP Executive Director and co-author of the study. \u201cAs proof, over half of the agreements analyzed contain no clauses to encourage the retention of older workers. And in the rest of the sample, the only measures intended for older workers have to do with gradual retirement \u2013 provisions that generally lead workers to leave the labour market rather than encouraging their retention.\u201d<\/p>\n

Since 44% of jobs in the province held by Quebec-born workers are covered by collective agreements, the authors consider that some of these vacant positions could be filled if measures to actively retain older workers were rapidly introduced in these agreements. \u201cIt remains a significant challenge,\u201d concedes Gagn\u00e9. \u201cAll the parties involved \u2013 companies, unions and the government, which in this case is the largest employer in the province \u2013 will have to co-operate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lessons to be learned\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

After retracing the origins of the phenomenon of an aging population for purposes of this analysis, the authors feel that the province should learn some lessons from the way this issue has been managed. \u201cLooking back, we can see that the Quebec government was not proactive, even though the problem has been recognized for a long time,\u201d explains Gagn\u00e9. Constantly concerned by high unemployment, successive administrations in the 2000s and 2010s failed to raise immigration targets to meet the future needs of the labour market. As a result, the demand for workers now outstrips the supply, a problem that could have been avoided in part if the pool of workers had been expanded earlier. \u201cBy applying this short-term logic to an issue calling for a long-term solution, the government failed to make use of an important tool that could have helped to soften the impact of an aging population. But given the slow pace of the process and immigrants\u2019 difficulties integrating the labour market, greater immigration clearly can be only a tiny part of the short-term solution,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n

Once it realized the seriousness of the situation, the Quebec government sought to encourage older workers to remain on the job, as a means of bridging the widening gap in the labour market. Starting in the early 2010s, it offered tax credits for older workers to keep them in the workplace, but these measures apparently did not have the desired effects. \u201cOn the one hand, it is questionable whether the fiscal approach is really suited to the nature of the problem,\u201d says Gagn\u00e9. \u201cThere are very likely few workers who would base their decision to retire on tax credits. But more important, the Quebec government didn\u2019t consider it worthwhile to review its own policies. As the province\u2019s largest employer, with a highly unionized workforce made up mainly of Quebec-born workers, it could have led by example by including active measures to retain experienced workers at the start of the 2010s.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

For more information: Deslauriers, Jonathan, Robert Gagn\u00e9 and Jonathan Par\u00e9,\u00a0Vieillissement d\u00e9mographique : solutions pour un Qu\u00e9bec mal pr\u00e9par\u00e9<\/a>, Centre for Productivity and Prosperity (CPP) \u2013 Walter J. Somers Foundation, HEC Montr\u00e9al, October 2021 (In French only)<\/p>\n<\/div>

Read the publication<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3750,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-public-policy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3288"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3288\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3800,"href":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3288\/revisions\/3800"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3750"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpp.hec.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}